The first round of the 2024 NFL Draft is over, with 32 players finding 32 new homes.
The first defensive player didn’t come off the board until the Indianapolis Colts selected selected UCLA edge rusher Laiatu Latu with the 15th overall pick.
In fact, six quarterbacks were taken before Latu.
Someone’s going to have to stop all that top-level offensive firepower entering the league.
Overall, just nine of the 32 players picked in the first round came from the defensive side of the ball, and history says one of these first-rounders has a solid chance to be named Defensive Rookie of the Year.
Now that we know where they will be playing, their new team’s defensive schemes and coaching staff, let’s take a look at how they might perform in their rookie seasons by breaking down the current odds for DROY and discuss whether there’s value on the board.
2024 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year odds
| Player | Position | Team | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Turner | Edge | Vikings | +450 |
| Laiatu Latu | Edge | Colts | +800 |
| Jared Verse | Edge | Rams | +1000 |
| Quinyon Mitchell: | CB | Eagles | +1000 |
| Terrion Arnold | CB | Lions | +1000 |
| Byron Murphy | DT | Seahawks | +1200 |
| Chop Robinson | Edge | Dolphins | +1600 |
| Nate Wiggins | CB | Ravens | +2500 |
| Darius Robinson | Edge | Cardinals | +3000 |
Top NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year candidates
The nine defensive players taken in the first round tied the 1973 class for the fewest in one draft.
That leaves us with an intriguing crop of names in the DROY market, with two standouts at the top.
Seven of the last 10 winners racked up at least seven sacks, so we’re looking for edge rushers who can deliver big numbers.
A case for Dallas Turner
Dallas Turner is the favorite at +450 and he joins the Vikings, where he’ll enter a blitz-heavy Brian Flores defense that will consistently put him in situations to make plays.
The Vikings lost Danielle Hunter, who had 16.5 sacks last season, creating a clear need for a pass rusher. They did add Jonathan Greenard on a three-year deal.
While Turner’s pass-rush tool kit is incomplete, Flores will generate one-on-one matchups against offensive tackles with his creative defensive scheme.
Turner is at +650 on DraftKings, so be sure to shop around.
A case for Laiatu Latu
I’m incredibly high on Latu’s ability to produce immediately.
He finished with a 94.3 PFF pass-rush grade last season, leading the FBS.
That’s also the best grade since Chase Young in 2019 and is better than recent elite prospects Aidan Hutchinson, Josh Allen, Nick Bosa, T.J. Watt, Myles Garrett and Joey Bosa.
The Colts recently hired Charlie Partridge as their new defensive line assistant, who has coached players like J.J. Watt and Trey Hendrickson.
Latu has immediate double-digit sack potential under Patridge’s tutelage.
Betting on the NFL?
A case for Byron Murphy II
The only other player I’d consider in this market is Byron Murphy, who before the unprecedented slide of defensive players in the draft, had real hype to go in the top 10.
The Texas product was featured on the Feldman’s Freaks list of the best athletes in college football ahead of last season, and he ran a 4.87-second 40-yard dash (91st percentile).
New Seahawks head coach Mike MacDonald helped Justin Madubuike to a 13-sack All-Pro season in Baltimore last year, and Murphy has elite potential under his leadership.
