Anything can happen. The decision that Pedro Sanchez will take this Monday will mark the most immediate political pulse and opens, of course, an uncertain scenario with many questions. Among the leaders of the Socialist Party, uncertainty hovers in the air. No one in his immediate environment knows for now what exactly he is going to do. the president of the Government. Sánchez’s secrecy remains intact and, as the Socialist Directorate assures, his leader continues without discussing this matter with anyone and without revealing what his next step will be.
While the unknowns accumulate, the Federal Committee of the PSOE held this Saturday finally became a massive event in support of its general secretary. All socialist leaders, without exception, expressed their support for the President. They encouraged him not to leave and continue in his position. But despite the support, long faces, sadness and doubts dominated the socialist meeting. In fact, within the party there are more who now suggest that the President will say goodbye than that he will stay, What would happen if he finally resigned?
The scenario if Sánchez presents his resignation
The resignation of the leader of the Executive is a possibility included in the Constitution. Specifically, This option is contemplated in article 101 of the Magna Carta, which alludes to other possible circumstances such as the death of the Prime Minister or a loss of parliamentary confidence. “The Government ceases after the holding of general elections, in cases of loss of parliamentary confidence provided for in the Constitution, due to resignation, or death of its President,” reads the aforementioned article.
Therefore, if Sánchez were to announce his resignation this Monday, the entire cabinet, including the Prime Minister and the ministers, They would remain in office but in functions. This would mean that during this time their powers would be limited and they would not have the capacity to legislate or even to call new elections.
And who would name the new president?
If Sánchez leaves office, a new period would then open for Congress to elect his successor. This process, included in article 99 of the Constitution, is the same as that of the investiture sessions that are held after a call for general elections. The first thing the Socialist Party would have to do then is appoint a new candidate for the investiture. This does not need to be a member of the Government, nor a deputy, nor even a member of the PSOE. It is even possible that Sánchez will announce his successor in his speech this Monday.
The most likely scenario, by hierarchy, is that among these successors are the first vice president, Maria Jesus Monterothe Minister of the Presidency and Relations with the Cortes, Felix Bolañosor the Government spokesperson, Pilar Alegría. Once this mystery is resolved, the king would begin a round of consultations with the spokespersons of all the parties that have representation in the Lower House. He would do it from lowest to highest and, once all of his opinions had been heard, he would designate a new candidate for President of the Government.
Has it happened before?
Yes, there is already a precedent for this scenario. This was what happened in 1981 when the leader of the Executive at that time, Adolfo Suarez, submitted his resignation. His party, UCD, He then proposed to Leopoldo Calvo-Sotelo as his successor and, after an investiture debate that was then interrupted by the attempt to coup d’état of 23-Fhe finally received the support of Congress to be president.
Under this hypothesis, the candidate who was appointed by the monarch would have to thus submitting to an investiture debate in the Lower House. To be elected, would have to obtain the support of the absolute majority of Congress, that is, 176 votes. If it does not obtain them in a first vote, it could be approved in a second vote after obtaining the support of a simple majority, that is, more yeses than noes.
If even this candidate does not manage to be invested, a period of two months would then be opened under which new candidates, proposed by the king, They could then run for the Presidency. After two months, if no candidate obtains the support of Congress, then the Cortes would automatically be dissolved and convened again. general elections.
Can Sánchez call elections this Monday?
The answer is simple: no. If Pedro Sánchez decides to continue in his position, he will then have to wait until the end of May to be able to call new general elections in our country. This rule is because the law establishes that early elections They cannot be called until after one year of the previous dissolution of the Cortes, a fact that became effective with its publication in the BOE on May 30, 2023.
To celebrate this new appointment with the polls, the President cannot be in office, so either Sánchez remains in office, or it is his successor who calls them, but It can never be before that period. Once the date of May 30 has passed, the dissolution decree could then be approved and, therefore, the call for new elections.
These would be held 54 days after this dissolution became effective. Therefore, these hypothetical elections would be held, at the earliest, the last week of July. The law does not establish the obligation for the population to have to go to the polls no matter what on a Sunday but, if this occurs, the most likely date on the calendar in this scenario would be next July 28.
What happens if you file a motion of confidence?
Beyond resignation, there is another possibility that has also been considered since the moment Sánchez published his letter and his decision to stop for a few days. This happens because the president announce that he remains in officebut that is subject to a question of trust.
This mechanism, included in article 112 of the Constitution, is, in political terms, a revalidation of the investiture to which the President of the Government can voluntarily submit in front of a Chamber that has elected him and through which he once again asks for your support. In the history of Spanish democracy, two debates of this type have been held. One was that of Adolfo Suárez and another that of Felipe González. In both, the president again obtained the support of Congress.
What is this process like?
As established by the regulations of the Lower House, this debate would take place in a similar way to that of the investiture sessions. On this occasion, however, the president’s confidence it would be revalidated simply by obtaining more yeses than noes. If Sánchez does not obtain the support of Congress, then the same thing would happen as if he had resigned and the process to invest a new president would begin: consultations with the king, the monarch designates a candidate and an investiture debate.
In the same way, if no one obtains the necessary support to be invested, the Cortes would be dissolved and general elections would be held. For the moment, all the questions remain and any option seems possible. Everything is, again, in the hands of Pedro Sánchez.
