The San Francisco Giants finish up a disastrous East Coast road swing Monday afternoon at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. They have won just one game out of six so far, and have been outscored by a combined 20 runs.
On Tuesday, they go west for a three-game series against the Rockies to finish out their 10-game tour before finally heading home to the Bay Area.
Perhaps Monday’s starting pitcher against the Phillies can provide a pick-me-up to a clubhouse in need, as highly touted prospect Mason Black is set to make his MLB debut in his home state of Pennsylvania.
Giants vs. Phillies odds
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | +176 | +1.5 (-125) | o7.5 (-110) |
| Phillies | -210 | -1.5 (+104) | u7.5 (-110) |
Giants vs. Phillies prediction
Black has pitched to a 1.01 ERA with Triple-A Sacramento, which is the best mark of any starter in the Pacific Coast League.
He has struck out 29% of batters faced, and allowed a WHIP of just 0.90 across 100 plate appearances.
His arsenal of pitches features modest spin rates and should only grade out around MLB league average.
Still, his elite command over his four-pitch mix could give problems early on to the Phillies’ red-hot offense.
No one has been hotter in all of baseball than slugger Alec Bohm, who is on a tear unlike any Philly team has seen in the last 15 years.
However, there are indicators the Phillies are due for some offensive regression toward the wRC+ of 126 it has posted over the last two weeks.
Losing Trea Turner also downgrades the offense to an extent, and it is possible we see the Phillies offer off days to an important batter or two based on last week’s usage.
Zack Wheeler enters this matchup priced as the National League Cy Young favorite at +300 odds (bet365). He has pitched to an xERA of 2.38, with an xFIP of 2.78. He owns a Pitching+ rating of 110 and has seen his strikeout rate rise to 30%.
The Giants have hit to a wRC+ of only 98 over the last two weeks. They own an xSLG of .399 and have struck out 22.8% of the time.
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Giants vs. Phillies prediction
Black has the potential to post reasonable results right from the jump, even in this tough matchup.
Wheeler should be able to continue his dominant season versus a slumping Giants lineup though and that makes me believe there is value targeting a low-scoring game.
Even if Philadelphia plays its top lineup, there is value betting the F5 to stay under 4 runs at -115.
If the Phillies do rest some key batters, betting the Giants to win the first five at +165 would also hold value.
