College football’s postseason is expanding for the first time in a decade, tripling its field from four to 12 teams.
This new postseason format comes with a few unique wrinkles, including on-campus first-round matchups and a bye for the top four conference champions.
What hasn’t changed significantly is the college football futures market.
The preseason futures market last fall listed nine teams’ odds at 18/1 or shorter. As of Monday, despite the new 12-team field, there are eight teams at 18/1 or shorter odds.
Does this mean oddsmakers are foolishly hanging lucrative numbers, or are they setting bear traps for the public? Let’s pull back the curtain.
It’s useful to look back at the last expansion pivot point in college football to see how oddsmakers reacted to a new playoff format.
Oddsmakers quickly adjusted to the BCS era (1998-2013), settling into a familiar neighborhood each preseason, regularly grouping seven to eight teams in the +400 to 18/1 range.
In the final five years of the BCS, seven teams fell into that range on average.
When the postseason field doubled to four in 2014, it stood to reason that oddsmakers would add a few likely candidates to their “favorites” grouping, but they didn’t budge. Prior to the 2014 season kicking off, seven teams opened between +300 and 18/1.
Notably, Ohio State (40/1) wasn’t taken seriously by oddsmakers and not only crashed the first CFP but won the whole thing.
Over time, oddsmakers added to the preseason “favorites” pool, topping out with nine in the final season of the four-team CFP era.
With the access to the playoff tripling, I was expecting this futures group to expand as well, but as I noted above, it’s actually shrunk to eight. This is presenting bettors with tremendous value.
If all eight of the favorites made the field, that would still leave four spots for teams at 20/1 or longer. Entering the playoffs with a team north of 30/1 is a license to print money from a hedge perspective.
Speaking of mispriced teams, here are my two current favorites:
Miami (Fla.) to win national championship (66/1, bet365)
Fortunes can change quickly in the NIL/portal era, and Miami has added significant talent to its roster this offseason by nabbing a quartet of four-star prospects, most notably in the offensive backfield.
Former Washington State QB Cam Ward, who accounted for 33 total touchdowns and nearly 3,900 total yards last fall, has started 25 games at the FBS level. He brings instant stability to an up-and-down position for the ’Canes.
Ward will be handing off to fellow “Pac-2” transfer Damien Martinez. The running back was a force for Oregon State and is the nation’s 10th-best returning rusher, as ranked by PFF.
Overall, when you factor in returning production and transfer activity, Miami is the third-most seasoned team, according to the Action Network’s Collin Wilson.
Betting on College Football?
Boise State to win national championship (600/1, BetRivers)
This price makes no sense whatsoever.
The highest-ranked Group of Five team is finally guaranteed a playoff bid, and who is the best G5 team this season? Boise by a country mile.
The defending Mountain West champs return 18 starters, including All-American candidate Ashton Jeanty at running back. The Broncos also added USC quarterback Malachi Nelson, a former five-star recruit.
Tyler Stockton takes over play-calling duties at defensive coordinator. The rising star is a name to watch in the coaching ranks having been a three-time Broyles Award nominee while at Ball State.
The Broncos’ schedule, which features non-conference tussles with Oregon, Oregon State and Washington State, provides them with a path to the playoff that won’t require a perfect 13-0 record.
