How Denver, Pittsburgh Steelers match up

Steelers (1-0) at Broncos (0-1)

When: Sunday, 2:25 p.m.

Where: Empower Field at Mile High

Radio/TV: 850 AM, 94.1 FM/CBS

Line: Steelers -2.5

Broncos-Steelers series: Denver is 15-10-1 in 26 regular-season games dating back to 1970; the Broncos lost 27-19 in the last meeting, on Oct. 10, 2021, in Pittsburgh, and have dropped two in a row against the Steelers.

In the spotlight:  Broncos shouldn’t sleep on Justin Fields. Past experience serves as a reminder.

Justin Fields’ biggest critics harp on his arm. Last season, the Broncos learned the Ohio State product can sling it just fine.

As the starting quarterback for the Chicago Bears in 2023, Fields had the Denver secondary on its heels, completing 16 straight passes to help the Bears take a 21-7 lead at halftime.

Even though the Broncos bounced back, outscoring Chicago, 24-7, to secure a comeback win, Fields’ performance left a lasting impression. He completed 28 of 35 passes for a career-best 335 yards, four touchdowns and an interception.

It was the second time in Fields’ career he completed 80% of his passes in a game.

On Sunday, the Broncos welcome Fields to Empower Field at Mile High. This time, he is on a new team and offense that suits his abilities.

Fields was traded to Pittsburgh in the offseason after the Bears decided to make No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams the franchise quarterback. He is expected to make his second start of the season, as former Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson nurses a calf injury.

Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith relies heavily on the run game, making Smith and Fields a perfect match. Fields has 2,277 career rushing yards and 14 touchdowns, including 657 and four scores in 2023.

In Pittsburgh’s season-opening win over the Falcons, Fields threw for 157 yards while rushing for 57 on 14 carries.

Denver struggled to contain the run in its loss to Seattle last week, allowing 146 total rushing yards, with 90 coming in the second half. Due to the Steelers’ lack of pass-catching threats outside of wideout George Pickens and tight end Pat Freiermuth, expect Smith to attack the Broncos’ weakness through Fields and running back Najee Harris.

“Stopping the run is a must for us,” defensive coordinator Vance Joseph said. “Pittsburgh’s formula to win is running the football. That’s what coach (Mike) Tomlin has done for the last 15-plus years.”

In preparation for Sunday, Broncos head coach Sean Payton said the team has studied Fields’ performance in Week 1 as well as some of his designed runs during his time with the Bears.

Still, the Broncos are mindful of Fields’ ability to beat them through the air.

“With a guy like (Fields), we have to make sure that we plaster the receivers and don’t allow them to get second chances,” cornerback Pat Surtain II said. “We know that Justin creates second opportunities for the receivers and for their offense. When you (have) a dual-threat quarterback like that, you really have to lock in and hone in (on the) second play ahead, rather than the first play.”

Who has the edge?

When Broncos run
Denver’s 2023 struggles to establish an efficient rushing attack carried over into last week’s season-opening loss to the Seahawks. The Broncos’ running backs combined for 69 rushing yards, as starter Javonte Williams averaged 2.9 yards per carry on eight attempts. Williams has recorded fewer than 50 yards in five straight games, dating back to last season. The Steelers held Atlanta to 89 yards on the ground last week. Edge: Steelers

When Broncos pass
As a whole, Denver’s passing game struggled in Seattle. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix was off-target on a handful of throws. The offensive line was unable to provide a clean pocket, allowing 18 pressures. And the Broncos’ wide receivers failed to consistently create separation. Wideout Courtland Sutton averaged 2.1 yards of separation in the loss. Broncos offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi said Steelers edge rusher T.J. Watt has an “Aaron Donald-like effect on the game.” Watt has 97.5 sacks since entering the league in 2017. Edge: Steelers

When Steelers run
Najee Harris has rushed for 1,000-plus yards in three consecutive seasons. Even though quarterback Justin Fields has been criticized for his arm talent, he remains a problem whenever he takes off running. When Fields was on the Bears last season, he rushed for 657 yards and four touchdowns. Denver’s run defense showed signs of life against Seattle, but faltered in the second half, allowing 90 rushing yards in the final two quarters. Edge: Steelers

When Steelers pass
With Fields under center, the Steelers only had three players record 10-plus receiving yards against Atlanta, including top target George Pickens, who had six catches for 85 yards. Pat Surtain II shadowed Seahawks star wideout DK Metcalf and it wouldn’t be surprising if he did the same against Pickens on Sunday. If that’s the case, Pickens could be in for a tough afternoon. “I always love the challenge. It brings the best out of me going into the week,” Surtain said. Edge: Broncos

Special teams
Pittsburgh kicker Chris Boswell was named the AFC Special Teams Player of the Week after going 6 for 6 on field goal attempts and even booted a 43-yard punt in the win over Atlanta. Last season, Boswell converted 93.5% of his field goal attempts. Meanwhile, Broncos kicker Wil Lutz went 3 for 3 in Week 1. Given the state of both offenses, Sunday’s matchup could turn into a kicking battle. Edge: Steelers

Coaching
Steelers coach Mike Tomlin has yet to have a losing season, guiding his team to the playoffs in three of the last four years. Pittsburgh was the only AFC North team to secure a victory in Week 1. Despite issues with Pittsburgh’s offense, Tomlin has been able to find ways to win games. Russell Wilson is no longer in Denver, but the Broncos offensive concerns under Sean Payton remain. The run game is insufficient and the short pass game didn’t work in Week 1. The defense looked improved under Joseph, but the question on whether the unit can play consistently for an entire game still remains. Edge: Steelers

Tale of the tape

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*Stats from 2024

By the numbers

19: Sacks for Pittsburgh’s T.J. Watt in 2023.

5: Pressures allowed by Broncos right tackle Mike McGlinchey in Week 1, according to Next Gen Stats.

23.2: Average number of offensive snaps played by Broncos wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr. since 2023.

22: Rushing touchdowns for Najee Harris.

3: Career games with at least two sacks by Broncos OLB Jonathon Cooper.

Bet on it

Broncos offensive touchdown on first drive (+380): Denver’s defense gave Nix and company the perfect opportunity to score a touchdown on the first drive last week. After inside linebacker Alex Singleton’s interception resulted in a 21-yard return to Seattle’s 20, the Broncos failed to capitalize on solid field position, as a three-and-out led to a field goal. Denver finished 1 for 4 in the red zone in Week 1. The results against Seattle don’t provide a ton of hope the Broncos can reach the end zone on their first drive on Sunday.

Bo Nix passing yards under 166.5: Until proven otherwise, this is a safe bet. Nix averaged 3.3 yards per attempt in his debut, and it’s expected the Broncos will utilize the short passing game once again on Sunday. Pittsburgh’s defense might give Nix a challenge, especially with questionable pass protection from Denver’s offensive line. All signs are pointing toward Nix throwing for less than 166 yards. Don’t think twice about this.

Post predictions

Parker Gabriel, beat writer: Steelers 20, Broncos 17

Russ or no Russ, life doesn’t get easier for Denver rookie QB Bo Nix against Pittsburgh’s defense. T.J. Watt rightfully gets top billing, but Alex Highsmith (14.5 sacks in 2022, seven last year) is no slouch on the other side. Mike Macdonald and the Seahawks played it pretty straight last week. Mike Tomlin? Here’s betting he’s got some wrinkles up his sleeve for Nix and company.

Ryan McFadden, beat writer: Steelers 17, Broncos 13

This game might get ugly. Denver’s offensive line is already banged up so there’s a chance quarterback Bo Nix will be running for his life against T.J. Watt on Sunday. At the same time, Pittsburgh’s offense is questionable. Denver’s home opener will be a low-scoring contest, dictated by special teams and the run game. Pittsburgh will have the edge against the Broncos.

Troy Renck, columnist: Broncos 17, Steelers 16

No Russell Mania, so this feels like an undercard bout. But there is urgency for the Broncos to win because if not they are staring at an 0-4 start with back-to-back roadies looming. Bo Nix will be challenged by the Steelers pass rush, but will be helped by an improved run game. However, the Broncos will escape because of three takeaways, including a Jonathon Cooper strip sack of Justin Fields for the second straight season.