Sean Payton has to stop coaching the team he wants and coach the team he has.
When looking at the Broncos’ offensive issues in the opener, those included the line, running back, receivers and … the coordinator?
When Payton cut Russell Wilson in March, eating $85 million in dead money, it sent an unmistakable message that the quarterback was the problem. But are we sure it wasn’t the play-caller he left behind?
In Wilson’s 15 starts last season, the Broncos averaged 21.7 points, 329.7 yards, 5.13 yards per play and 233.8 net passing yards per game. In the three games with him benched and ditched, the Broncos have averaged 16.6 points, 277 yards, 4.26 yards per play and 194 yards passing.
Beginning Sunday, Payton needs to start showing why dispatching Wilson made sense. It is known that they clashed professionally. Payton wants an on-time, in-rhythm offense, not an attack based on streetball plays that are not sustainable.
He is not wrong. But can he prove he was right?
Everything about Payton’s resume suggests he is capable of doing so. But we haven’t seen it. It reminds me of my days covering coach Mike Shanahan. The debate raged as the Broncos captured back-to-back Super Bowl titles: Was it because of the players or the system?
Shanahan posted a 7-1 postseason record with John Elway as his quarterback on teams that featured Hall of Famers Terrell Davis, Shannon Sharpe and Gary Zimmerman. His playoff record without Elway? A sobering 1-5 in Denver and Washington with zero victories from a drafted quarterback. He had his Bo Nix in Jay Cutler and couldn’t make it work.
Translation: A coach can be a mastermind — and Payton and Shanahan deserve this title — and not win without a star quarterback and plenty of talent around him.
Three games without Wilson is a micro-sample size but cannot be dismissed. The Broncos have looked worse without him in Jarrett Stidham’s two starts and Nix’s debut.
Wilson will likely watch Sunday from the sideline, his 35-year-old body struggling with a calf injury that has lingered for six weeks. His age and declining skills offer support for Payton’s decision to cut him.
But Payton must demonstrate he is capable of making the pieces fit. It starts with patience. The Broncos offense is not a movie on Netflix. He can’t skip to the good parts. There are times when it looks like he is calling a game for Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas and Jimmy Graham. He wants to go fast. He wants to get it all back.
But “Go Bo Go” won’t work. Not yet.
For starters, Nix is starting his second game. He is the plant that needs to be watered, nurtured. There is no sunlamp available to accelerate his growth. Payton’s game plan must reflect that Nix is a rookie, something he never dealt with, save for one start, in his previous 16 seasons as a head coach. Evolving together is critical for Payton’s success and Nix’s development.
Payton has won with underwhelming signal-callers, going undefeated with Teddy Bridgewater (5-0) in 2019 and 9-3 with Jameis Winston (5-2) and Taysom Hill (4-1) in 2021. His scheme has shown the ability to be quarterback-proof.
The challenges in Denver are more complicated. Not only is he breaking in Nix, but he lacks weapons. This is where there is room for Payton to show creativity. Payton is not a coach set in his ways, using a flip phone and watching reel-to-reel film. He studies trends and analytics and understands what works in the league.
Adding pre-snap motion could help goose the offense. With players not consistently winning their one-on-ones, the onus falls on Payton to create mismatches through eye candy. In the opener, the Broncos had the league’s second-lowest pre-snap motion rate at 21%.
Even in heavy personnel, it would be a welcome sight to see movement behind the line of scrimmage even if it just amounted to creating more man and zone indicators in coverage for Nix.
And Payton must resist falling in love with the pass. The goal should be to keep Nix around 30 attempts. Stick with the run. Win the field position game. Let Justin Fields lose with a critical turnover.
The Broncos offense was a mess against Seattle with a lot of coaches and players picking a bad day to have a bad day. It was on the road, it was loud, it was the first game.
Those are all valid reasons, but without improvement Sunday against the Steelers they will look like excuses. Payton never lacks confidence. He has made a living making in-game adjustments and winning on the headsets.
This is the second chapter of his career. He wanted it without Wilson. It’s time to show he can succeed without him.
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