Rockies Journal: Forecasting Colorado’s offseason moves

Forecasting the Rockies’ offseason is like forecasting Colorado’s weather. It’s an inexact science.

But there are trends to watch and indications of what’s likely to come.

The most important and obvious trend is the Rockies’ ongoing youth movement. If the talent blossoms, as general manager Bill Schmidt and manager Bud Black believe it will, a turnaround could happen, if not in 2025, then in ’26.

The Rockies’ “construction project,” as they prefer to call it, will continue during the offseason and into spring training.

Following is my offseason forecast:

• Colorado’s payroll will take a dip in 2025, multiple sources confirmed.

That’s because the team’s spending is closely tied to its TV revenue and that revenue has fallen. Like most major league teams, the Rockies’ money stream was disrupted by the demise of regional sports networks.

Before AT&T SportsNet shut down, the Rockies garnered about $57 million in TV money in 2023. According to Spotrac.com, the Rockies’ total payroll allocation in ’23 was $171.0 million, ranking 14th in the majors.

But as the Rockies switched to their online streaming service (Rockies.TV, which is produced and distributed by Major League Baseball), revenue took a hit and Colorado’s total payroll dipped to $147.3 million (17th) this past season. Even with retired outfielder Charlie Blackmon’s $13 million contract coming off the books, the Rockies plan to spend less in 2025.

Their payroll reduction is not tied to attendance at Coors Field. Despite back-to-back 100-loss seasons, fans continue to flock to Rockies games and there has been only a slight decline in attendance. The Rockies drew an average of 34,467 fans per game in 2022, ranking ninth in the majors. They drew 32,196 (14th) in 2023, and 31,361 (15th) this past season.

• The Rockies will be looking to trade some veteran players. The top candidates are second baseman Brendan Rodgers and starters Cal Quantrill and Austin Gomber. All three are scheduled to become free agents after the 2025 season. Of the two pitchers, Quantrill is the most likely to be moved.

The reasons behind possible trades for the veterans are two-fold. First, the Rockies need to clear space on the roster for up-and-coming players, particularly in the starting rotation. Starters such as right-hander Chase Dollander, and lefties Sean Sullivan and Carson Palmquist are knocking on the big-league door.

Second, by trading Rodgers and Quantrill, the Rockies could save money and use it elsewhere. According to Cots Baseball Contracts, Quantrill is projected to make $8 million in his final year of arbitration, while Rodgers is projected to make $5 million. Gomber is also projected to make $5 million in his final year of arbitration.

• Either via trade or free agency, the Rockies’ primary goal is to add a steady, consistent hitter to their lineup. They are coming off a season in which their .242 average was the lowest in franchise history and their 1,617 strikeouts were the most.

With young players such as Michael Toglia, Nolan Jones and Jordan Beck still experiencing strikeout-filled growing pains, the Rockies need a veteran who can provide quality at-bats, put the ball in the play and drive in runs.

• Ranking second on Colorado’s wish list is finding a veteran for the bullpen. While Black is bullish on six rookie relievers — right-handers Angel Chivilli, Jeff Criswell, Seth Halvorsen, Jaden Hill, and Victor Vodnik, and lefty Luis Peralta — he also knows that their success came over a short stretch of time. Schmidt has said he would like to add a veteran arm to pair with right-hander Tyler Kinley.