France returns to chaos. Since the summer legislative elections, nothing has been the same, and except for a major surprise, The Government led by Michel Barnier will fall this Wednesday with a motion of censure – which is voted on at 4:00 p.m. called by the New Popular Front (NFP) and supported by National Regrouping (RN), Marine Le Pen’s party. A clamp against an Executive who It was the departure of Emmanuel Macron and it has never been stable. In fact, this Monday Barnier resorted to article 49.3 of the Constitution to approve the Social Security Budget by decree bypassing a very divided National Assembly and opening the door to the cliff.
In this very complex scenario, the Executive ministers closed ranks with Barnier himself. “Until the moment of the vote there is the possibility of talking. Mrs. Le Pen is there, but also 576 other deputies,” said Catherine Vautrin, Minister of Cohesion and Relations with territorial entities of France, for example, in an interview on the radio RMC. For his part, the head of the Economy, Antoine Armand, warned of the “instability” that the fall of the Government would cause. “It is not the Government and the budget that we submit to a motion of censure, but to the country we put in danger. If interest rates rise tomorrow, if taxes rise, the French will pay the consequences“, he stated.
Others, such as the head of the Interior, Bruno Retailleau, charged especially against Marine Le Pen and her party, who have held the key to the continuity of the Governmenteither. Barnier tried to negotiate with her until the last moment this Monday, but finally failed to reach an agreement to avoid resorting to a constitutional mechanism that allows him to approve reforms – specifically, the 2025 Social Security budget with cuts to alleviate the high French deficit – skipping the Parliament vote.
“My feeling is that you can shower Mrs Le Pen with gifts like the Christmas tree and she will say no. Because he has an agenda. Because she has an agenda,” Retailleau added.
And now What will happen in a France that has been plunged into uncertainty in the last few months?
Why does Barnier fall?
“The French They would not forgive us if we put private interests before the future of the nation“Barnier himself explained in the Assembly, just at the same time that he asked for “responsibility” from the rest of the formations. Throughout the day on Monday he was making concessions to the radical right in relation to pensions, the reimbursement of medicines or energy taxes. It has not been enough to reach an agreement with Le Pen’s party. Thus, Barnier falls, says the radical right, “due to lack of dialogue”. Both RN and the left accuse him of “not understanding” the situation in the country.
The motion of censure will be voted on Wednesday, just one day before Michel Barnier’s Government completes 3 months in office… but it may not reach them in view of the very little support it has in the Assembly: only macronism and the Republicans are on their side. During this time, the Executive has tried to carry out measures to stabilize France’s delicate economic situation, such as a controversial pension reform that was one of Macron’s priorities since the last presidential elections. While, From the NFP they have always insisted that they are the ones who have to lead the Government since they were the winners of the parliamentary elections; The president, on the other hand, refuses that route.
What does this motion of censure mean?
The motion of censure is a reset for France. He returns to the same box he was in after the legislative elections. Emmanuel Macron will have to choose a new name in search of consensus that does not exist right now, and that also seems very distant. RN and NFP agree against macronism, but they have nothing else in common. Experts believe that the president will continue to bet on centrist profiles (similar to Barnier) although this has been shown to be not viable for a France that has a Parliament that is very complicated to organize. It is what the polls decided; but Macron remains intent on giving the impetus to a name proposed by the left… unless someone perhaps closer to the Socialist Party appears.
We cannot accept these deeply unfair budgets because they make the French pay for Macron’s incompetence
Who could replace him as prime minister?
There are still almost no names on the table but Lucie Castets is repeated, which was the NFP’s proposal for prime minister already in the summer. “I am prepared to govern,” Castets herself said this Tuesday. Of course, he warned that he will not “make it a personal issue” if it turns out that “another person is more suitable” for the position. The environmental leader Marine Tondelier has also spoken, although she is not yet in the pools. In his opinion, “it cannot be a solution that causes the problem”. He also criticized the concessions made by the Macronists to the National Group: “When you put yourself in the hands of Marine Le Pen, you become her doormat.”
What role does Le Pen have?
The radical right is the key piece in this whole puzzle, and RN has taken over the story during the last few hours: Marine Le Pen has emerged as the element that “brings down” Barnier’s Government. After the legislative elections he gave him his support, and now he takes it away. She even has that position although she does not present the motion of censure, since that remains in the hands of the NFP.
The far-right leader herself accused the still prime minister of “lack of dialogue” and assumed that the Government will fall in the motion of censure. He says that it is his party that “brings down” the cabinet, because they are the ones who gave him their votes a few months ago. “I presented him with our red lines and he did not want to accept them. We cannot accept these deeply unfair budgets because they make the French pay for Macron’s incompetence“he assured.
“The French have no reason to be afraid. The only thing they have to fear is the country’s high deficit and the rise in unemployment because of the policies of the last seven years,” concluded Le Pen, who is still in the race for the 2027 presidential election despite the fact that her party is immersed in a trial for allegedly diverting aid to hire MEP assistants to the coffers directly from the training.
How is Macron’s figure?
Emmanuel Macron is still very touched. It is going through its worst moment and has even lost a lot of focus at the European Union level. He has three years ahead of him to fix the mess, but he cannot run for president again and his approach to Le Pen is not liked at all to those who believe that it is “paving the way” for her to win in 2027. In that sense, French ‘centrism’ is also lacking relief: neither Gabriel Attal, nor Eduard Philippe, nor the current vice president of the European Commission Stephane Sejourné They seem to have the perfect profile to give continuity to a political space that only causes them to lose support (despite having been second in the legislative elections).
Barnier, however, has always been on the wire. There are no clear majorities in Parliament, with the left as the main force after the victory of the NFP in the legislative elections, ahead of Macronism and Marine Le Pen’s RN. Barnier’s profile seemed to please the centrists and also his party, The Republicans, but it raised many doubts from the first minute. both in progressive formations and in the radical right, although in recent times he has had nods towards them. At his worst, Macron resorted to a ‘moderate’ route to end the blockade, but now the blockade will now return.