USA enters a new political phase after the elections this Tuesday. The victory of donald trump Four years after leaving the White House, he has not fulfilled the predictions of the polls, which predicted a very close result between the already elected president and the Democrat. Kamala Harris. The Republican is already approaching 300 electoral votes of the 270 necessary to return to the Oval Office and has more than 71 million popular votes.
A major victory that takes the country to a new horizon and to the Republican Party to regain control of the Senate and, predictably, the House of Representatives. Circumstances that, if confirmed, will give the American magnate the Total power to do and undo as you please for years to come. Thus, four expert analysts break down what Trump’s new mandate will be like with respect to the economy, his participation in current war conflicts or his relationship with the European Union.
Antonio Camuñas, lawyer, consultant and president of ‘The Luxonomist’ magazine
For Antonio Camuñaslawyer, consultant and president of the magazine The Luxonomist, Trump’s new mandate may lead to “a change of both political and economic cycle”due to the difference in the Republican’s policies with respect to the Democratic Administration. “We must adapt to these changes, among which will most likely be the resolution of the war in ukraine in international terms and a more protectionist policy in national terms”.
In this sense, the lawyer details that the country will choose to protect yourself from Asian competition“particularly of China“, something that “will have economic effects for Europe to the extent that we know how to react correctly to the new circumstances.” According to Camuñas, “Trump’s protectionism is based on a massive tax cut for the majority of Americans, choosing to see if the savings that the citizen experiences, even if it goes against their purchasing power, results in their ability to set up a business, to invest.
The analyst thus believes that it is a economic policy contrary to the cycle of globalization that has occurred until now and with which “the savings of some countries has played against the dissavings of others”, also against the Europeans. “We are for the first time in a long time outside North American protection waters“, he points out. “The American priority is China and we are going to be left out. They have been warning about it for a long time. It is not logical for the US to pay for the protection of an entire continent that costs them dearly when it is no longer a priority for them and when they are no longer in a hegemonic situation.” For Camuñas, “Trump’s severe and harsh language has meant that, for the first time, “we Europeans are aware of the need to defend ourselves.”
José Luis Pontijas, doctor in Applied Economics
In the same line it is expressed José Luis Pontijasdoctor in Applied Economics and professor of Strategic Studies in the master’s degree in Geopolitics and Strategic Studies at the Carlos III University of Madrid. “The European Union will be affected from an economic point of view since, without a doubt, Trump will increase protectionism of the American economy that Biden has already started decisively,” he says.
Pontijas believes that “the Republican victory will force both the NATO and the EU to take charge of their security and its defense without counting on the United States.” Furthermore, he predicts “bad news” for Ukraine, which in his opinion will have to “negotiate with Russia under very unfavorable conditions and agree on dramatic and important issues.” However, with respect to Israel and the war in Gazathe economist points out that “any American administration, whether Republican or Democrat, fully supports whatever Israel doescontenting itself with mere political actions that the country led by Benjamin Netanyahu ignore without problems.”
Daniel Lacalle, doctor in Economics and professor of Global Economy and Finance
For the doctor in Economics Daniel LacalleTrump’s policy will be similar to that of his previous term, “negotiate and negotiate with your fist on the table“. Lacalle believes that his attitude towards NATO and the EU “is not going to be negative” although he believes that for the Republican the European policy “is the most protectionist” in terms of “environmental risks and restrictions”. Lacalle asserts that this could lead to “eliminating the possibility of importing American vehicles or food, so Trump is going to use tariffs as he did in the previous presidency period to negotiate and achieve more favorable conditions” for his country’s trade.
Regarding defense matters, Lacalle also points out that Trump will return to the formula that NATO “cannot subcontract the defense of its country at zero cost.” In this sense, the economist asserts that the Republican will make the NATO countries “commit more of their budget to defense and that, therefore, the organization itself is financed more by its member countries and not only through the United States budget.”
José Carlos DÃez, economist and professor of Macroeconomics and International Finance
Analyst José Carlos DÃez, economist and professor of Macroeconomics and International Finance, also specialists in financial crises, believes that “Trump’s tariffs are going to have negative consequences” for the European Union. “It already imposed tariffs on black olives and olive oil in the previous mandate,” he recalls, predicting that “now it will increase.” DÃez explains that if “it imposes more tariffs on Europe will be a bad news for Spanish companiesfarmers and for Spaniards in general”.
Like his colleagues, DÃez agrees that the Republican will not maintain the budget for NATO and that there will be direct implications of the magnate’s arrival at the White House for Ukraine. According to the economist, “Trump’s resounding victory has been a big surprise“and shows that on the island of Manhattan “there has been the worst result for the Democratic Party in thirty years.”