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Saturday, September 30, 2023

Perseverance in uncertainty

Aside from the news that impacts us every day and in which, with caution, we must trust, the ukrainian conflictwhich is heading into its nineteenth month, is developing in different ways and with unequal results, its constant being the loss of lives and the increase in the destruction of civil and military infrastructure, unique military material and residential areas.

The situation in the Black Sea and in its main port, Sevastopol, it has a clear protagonist, which is the Ukrainian army. Through the bold combined actions of its manned aviation with the launch of medium-range cruise missiles, and its aerial and surface drones, it has achieved damage or destroy four vesselstwo in dry dock (an improved kilo-class submarine and an amphibious assault ship) and two in the open sea (a frigate and a multirole ship) that have had to be towed back to their base.

Furthermore, in a brilliant special operations action has regained control of four platforms —Boyka towers— gas and oil extraction located south of Odessa and which Russia used as radar and communications stations. Added to this is the announced departure of two other freighters with grain from Ukrainian ports despite the fact that the export agreement is on hold. The

sum of all these actions transmits an image of impotence of the russian federation to protect its critical infrastructure, the vulnerability of its resources and the inability to maintain an effective blockade on the entire Black Sea. It is true that it can use access denial and area control techniques from coastal settlements with anti-ship missiles and aerial platforms, but its image of power has been damaged again and uncertainty about its real capacity continues to grow.

The development of combat on the ground is uneven, although there is a predominance of the initiative of the Ukrainian formations, that they have managed to recover some population and in some points penetrate the first line of the Russian defensive device, although with a limited nature (about 2.5 km of front in the Robotyne area), and that they are now trying to widen and deepen in order to continue developing the counteroffensive. The area where Ukraine puts the most effort It is the western area of ​​the province of Zaporizhia in the direction of Tokmak – a critical point for Russia – on which the Russian Federation is directing its reserves. All actions that appear to be long-term and have an uncertain outcome, since time will be decisive.

Analysts, politicians and military personnel agree to highlight perseverance and will to fight of the Ukrainian forces, who try again and again to break the Russian defensive device. Likewise, they demonstrate their ability to adapt to the changing situation by directing their actions differently depending on the degree of resistance they face, and they also agree that this counteroffensive will not be definitive and that actions must be planned to consolidate profits and protect the units.

On the international scene the Kim Jong-un’s visit to Russia, with declarations of friendship, support for the invasion and good words regarding future cooperation, but without concrete agreements that are known. The synthesis of what each one wanted was to reduce dependence on China and improve access to fuels and basic products, as well as alleviate as much as possible the war effort of the Russian military-industrial complex, fundamentally obtaining ammunition and weapons to continue with the pace. from the war.

Perseverance must be accompanied by the possibility of resistance, and this is linked to the support of the Ukrainian army and improving its fire and air defense capabilities. Without them, the uncertainty about the final result increases because his opponent shows no signs of weakening, trusting the final result to the exhaustion of the opponent and his supporter.

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