More than a year after hostilities began and almost two months after the start of the ground invasion, Israeli bombings will no longer resonate in Lebanon. After many hours of speculation, leaks and pressure within the Israeli Government, finally the prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahuhas signed the cease fire between Israel and Lebanon under the auspices of USA and France. “The duration of the ceasefire will depend on what happens in Lebanon and we will maintain total freedom of movement,” the prime minister said in a televised appearance. According to several Israeli media, this Wednesday at 10:00 a.m. local time (9:00 a.m. Spanish peninsular time) one of the numerous open fronts between the Jewish State and its neighbors in the Middle East will begin to de-escalate, in a multi-phase process that will distance the militia from the Lebanese Shiite party Hezbollah from southern Lebanon and will allow the return of hundreds of thousands of refugees.
And although the agreement has been signed between the Governments of both countries, the truth is that the truce is not so much with Lebanon as with Hezbollah, which governs the south of the country as if it were a parallel state; taking advantage of the situation of misgovernance and the important support it receives from the population and the Islamic Republic of Iran. The organization controls (or controlled) all aspects of the day-to-day life of the southern region. Among other things, security, despite the presence of the Provisional Force of the United Nations for Lebanon (UNIFIL), which for several decades has had to monitor the application of Resolution 1701, which seeks to maintain peace and the creation of a buffer zone on the so-called Blue Line. A 2006 agreement that has not been fulfilled and which is now intended to be revitalized with this ceasefire.
The hostilities unleashed by Hezbollah in response to the Israeli Army’s offensive on Gaza after the Hamas attacks of October 7 marked the beginning of a crossroads of air attacks that fueled the hatreds of the past. Although the idea of ​​the Lebanese organization was open a new front to Israel to torpedo its attacks against the Stripthe truth is that this situation has allowed the current Netanyahu Government to expand its objectives and try to definitively put an end to the organization. Especially since September, when the simultaneous explosions of searches and walkie talkies of Hezbollah members became the prelude to a ground invasion and a bombing campaign that have claimed the lives of more than 3,700 people and have caused the displacement of more than 1.2 million Lebanese.
The far-right partners of Netanyahu’s Government have tried to pressure in recent hours so that the truce would not be signed and the attacks would continue. However, the beheading of the Hezbollah leadership and international pressure have weighed more on achieving a ceasefire that gives some respite to the region. But it does not end with the war, since the Gaza Strip continues to suffer daily the ravages of the Israeli offensive.
What does the agreement say?
The details of the agreement have not yet been made public, but in recent days international and Israeli media have agreed on several points that sources close to the negotiation have leaked. Israel and Hezbollah would have agreed to a disarmament of southern Lebanon in an initial phase of 60 daysduring which time Israeli troops will withdraw and the Shiite group will retreat north of the Litani River, complying with the UN Security Council resolution.
The space will be occupied by 5,000 soldiers of the Lebanese Army. Various media report that US troops under the command of the US Central Command (Centcom) will supervise and will coordinate relations between the Israeli and Lebanese armed forces during the first days of the agreement. In addition, UNIFIL blue helmets will also participate in clearing the area.
The agreement also contemplates the creaction of an international organizationled by the United States, to supervise compliance with the ceasefire, in which four other countries will also be involved, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, and foreseeably a fifth Arab country. French troops will also be involved in this supervision work, something that was the main obstacle in the negotiations, since Israel opposed the French presence due to tensions between Macron and Netanyahu after Paris’ request for an arms embargo on Israel. .
According to Israeli television Channel 12, the American mediator, Amos Hochstein, imposed the presence of France in the group on Israel as a condition for the agreement. Furthermore, Lebanon also had to agree to the presence of the United Kingdomsomething that Beirut was opposed to but had to agree to after the inclusion of France.
Right to resume attacks
Another point that has delayed the approval of the ceasefire has been Tel Aviv’s demand that the agreement include the freedom to attack Lebanon again in the event that the agreed conditions are not met. Whether due to the rearmament of Hezbollah, the preparation of an attack against Israeli territory or if there is a return of the Islamist group’s militiamen to southern Lebanon.
Regarding rearmament, Israel intended to be able to attack Lebanon again if Iran continued sending weapons to Hezbollah through Syria. In this sense, the Lebanese State would commit to supervise the purchase and manufacture of weapons in the country so that they do not reach the Shia group. Hezbollah leader Naim Qasem assured that granting Israel “freedom of action” represents a violation of Lebanese sovereignty, and that the group will only accept an agreement that represents a “complete and exhaustive” end to the war.