Valencia is still recovering one month after the DANA. The torrential rains of October 29 left behind Lost lives, a trail of destruction and a political controversy that still resonates. After several weeks of controversy over coordination between administrations and the notification of alerts, the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) published this Friday a preliminary report on the phenomenon.
The document details that this “extraordinary episode” generated “historical accumulations” of precipitation in the Valencian Community. The Aemet recalls that on October 29 a “special notice” was in force in which it warned of the probability that 150-180 l/m2 could be locally exceeded in 12-24 hours. However, the maximum accumulated precipitation ended up being between 200 and 300 l/m2 in the province of Valencia and more than 700 l/m2 only in TurÃs.
In addition, the state agency shows a chronology of the predictions and warnings issued. The first alerts began on October 23, six days before the critical event. By October 29, the red level had already been activated in several areas of the Valencian Community and it extended during the afternoon of the same day due to the intensification of the rains. In its report, Aemet also highlights that the alert system was adjusted dynamically, based on information updated in real time.
However, the management of this emergency has had several crossed accusations. In the appearance in the Valencian Parliament two weeks ago, the president of the Generalitat, Carlos Mazón, acknowledged that there were “errors”, although he hid behind the fact that its Executive acted based on the information they had both from Aemet as well as the Júcar Hydrographic Confederation (CHJ).
The Generalitat assures that the CHJ confirmed the risk of breaking the Forata dam at 8:00 p.m. on October 29 and, after a deliberation within the Integrated Operational Coordination Center (Cecopi), “it was decided to send the massive alert message to the population, which arrived at 8:11 p.m.”. For its part, Aemet maintains that the possibility of said dam collapsing was mentioned in a Cecopi meeting around 5:30 p.m.
However, the president has admitted that “there was a lack of information and coordination,” which led “to a response that everyone needed to be faster” than it was. However, he has questioned why the central Executive did not take control of the situation from the beginning if it already had the information about the dam break: “Why did it not force that ES-Alert to be sent? Why If he was at Cecopi?”
“Do you mean to tell me that the Government at 5:30 p.m. I already knew that 80,000 lives of Valencians could be in danger and does not take command because supposedly here in Cecopi, in a body where the Government itself is a part, they are foundering or they are not knowing how to make decisions?” he asked on November 17.
The Aemet chronology
In its new report, Aemet defends its forecasts for that day. In this sense, he points out that in the general prediction for Spain issued on Sunday, October 20, “There was already talk, with high uncertainty, of the formation of a DANA for the 27th, 28th and 29th “The next day, the agency continued to indicate the arrival of the storm without ruling out “intense and abundant rainfall on the eastern façade.”
In the bulletins of the 22nd and 23rd, the probability of locally heavy rains in parts of the Mediterranean coast. In the prediction of the 24th it was specified that Precipitation could “be abundant in the Mediterranean area, especially in the Levant.” On Friday the 25th, the Aemet points out, the first “Informative Note” of the episode was issued, which warned: “There is great uncertainty about the exact location of the largest accumulations, but it is possible that showers and storms will occur in parts of the Mediterranean slope. strong, or very strong, and locally persistent, more likely during Tuesday the 29th.”
At the weekend, the state agency reported that very heavy rains were going to occur in the Mediterranean and again indicated Tuesday. “On the 29th, which is expected to be the peak day of this episode, The greatest probability of these intense precipitations will be in the peninsular Mediterranean area (less likely in Barcelona and Girona) and around the Strait and, to a lesser extent, in the center and southern half. “It is likely that in points of the Valencian Community and Murcia it will exceed 150 mm in 24 hours,” he reported on Sunday when issuing a “Special Notice.”
Already on Monday, one day before the catastrophe, Aemet renewed that “Special Notice” and indicated that there would be a high probability of intense rainfall and storms in the Strait area, Eastern Andalusia, Murcia, eastern Castilla-La Mancha and the Valencian Community. “Due to the intensity and persistence of rainfall, it is likely that in these areas 120 to 150 mm can be locally exceeded in 12-24 hours.”
Finally, on Tuesday the “Special Notice” was renewed again, where it warned of the intensity and persistence of precipitation, that could “locally exceed 150-180 mm in 12-24 hours”. “To a lesser extent, but also locally intense, the rainfall will extend to much of the rest of the southern half, central zone and extreme northeast of the peninsula.”
Red level activation
The meteorological agency explains that on October 29, an update was made at 9:41 a.m. on the situation in the northern coast of Valencia, which raised the warnings to red level until 6:00 p.m. At 17:49 there was a new update that extended the red notices until 8:00 p.m., while yellow level warnings were raised to orange level. The last update was at 7:47 p.m. and extended the accumulated warning by 12 hours until 10:00 p.m., while increasing the accumulated values ​​to 200 l/m2.
In it Valencian southern coast, At 07:36 a.m. the Aemet issued a red level warning for accumulated in one hour of 90 l/m2, which would remain until 12:00 p.m., also issuing another red notice provided for accumulated in twelve hours of 180 l/m2 which would also be valid until noon. At 4:24 p.m., it issued a new red level warning for accumulated 90 l/m2 in one hour, valid until 6:00 p.m., with the orange level continuing from that time until the end of the day.
In it northern interior of Valencia, On the 29th, at 08:59 a.m., Aemet updated the warning for accumulated in one hour, maintaining the orange level, but increasing the accumulated of 60 l/m2. At 09:41, the warnings were raised to red level, for accumulated 90 and 180 l/m2 in one and twelve hours, respectively. These alerts would be in effect from that time until 6:00 p.m., with the orange level continuing from that time until the end of the day.